On October 3–4, 2025, the Czech Republic will hold a pivotal parliamentary election that will define its political trajectory for the next four years. Citizens at home and abroad will determine the composition of the Chamber of Deputies. Yet this election goes far beyond domestic debates: it is taking place in the shadow of mounting hybrid threats from Russia and growing concerns about the stability of Europe’s eastern flank.
Over the past year, Prague has faced an escalation of hybrid attacks: airspace violations, sabotage operations, cyberattacks, and aggressive disinformation campaigns. Against this backdrop, Czech leaders are aware that the outcome of the vote will shape not only internal policies but also the country’s role in collective European security.
The election campaign is dominated by opposition leader Andrej Babiš and his ANO movement. Babiš, a billionaire businessman with a controversial past, has long been criticized for his EU-skeptical stance and ambiguous posture toward Moscow. His name appeared in the Pandora Papers, and he was listed as an informant for the Czechoslovak secret police (StB) under the codename “Bureš” from 1982 to 1985. Although Czech lustration laws prohibit former StB collaborators from holding office, his case was never formally prosecuted. Analysts suggest that parts of his file may remain in Russian intelligence archives, giving Moscow potential leverage.
Babiš built his fortune through the agro-industrial giant Agrofert and has faced allegations of misusing EU subsidies. In the current campaign, he softened his rhetoric on Russia but declared that if elected, he would halt Prague’s initiative to supply ammunition to Ukraine. His remarks questioning EU and NATO cooperation fuel doubts about whether a Babiš-led government would maintain a pro-Western course.
One of the most striking elements of the campaign is the scale of online disinformation. Investigators from the Czech firm Online Risk Labs recently uncovered nearly 300 TikTok accounts promoting ANO, SPD, and Stačilo!. These accounts amplified pro-Russian narratives, justified Moscow’s war against Ukraine, and attacked EU and NATO institutions. With weekly reach between five and nine million views, they outperformed the official channels of mainstream parties. Given that one-quarter of Czechs actively use TikTok, the manipulation potential is enormous.
Beyond geopolitics, the role of Ukrainian refugees is a polarizing issue. Populist parties accuse them of fueling inflation and burdening social systems. Yet official statistics tell a different story: in the first half of 2025, Ukrainian refugees contributed 15 billion Czech crowns in taxes and fees, while state expenditures amounted to just 7.6 billion crowns. According to Labor Minister Marian Jurečka, since 2023 the revenues from refugees have consistently exceeded costs, undermining populist claims.
Polls suggest ANO may emerge as the largest party but fall short of an outright majority. That would push Babiš to seek allies among SPD, Stačilo! and Motoristé—all parties that question EU and NATO integration and advocate “pragmatic” ties with Russia, China, and Iran. In contrast, the governing coalition Spolu has anchored its campaign on strengthening Czechia’s Western alignment and bolstering European security.
A key reform in this election is the introduction of postal voting. The measure targets young people, citizens with disabilities, expatriates, and “weekend commuters.” For Prague, the reform is strategic: up to 600,000 Czechs living abroad are now eligible to cast ballots by mail, and their votes could decisively shape the result.
The stakes extend beyond Czech borders. The election will determine whether Prague remains a reliable ally within the EU and NATO—or whether populist forces aligned with Moscow gain ground in the heart of Central Europe. In a year marked by war, disinformation, and shifting global alliances, the Czech vote is more than a domestic contest: it is a litmus test of European resilience against external pressure.Read more on Klarfocus